The Market Has Spoken: Stability Returns After 5 Years of Turmoil
After a roller coaster ride from pandemic boom through correction, the Estes Park real estate market found its footing in 2025. Transaction volume recovered for the second consecutive year while prices stabilized near sustainable long-term trends. Here’s what the data reveals—and what it means for 2026.
THE BIG PICTURE: 2025 BY THE NUMBERS
The Estes Park market completed 413 sales in 2025, representing a solid 6.2% increase over 2024’s 389 transactions. While this recovery is encouraging, volume remains 28% below the 2021 peak of 575 sales when pandemic-driven demand reached its zenith. Total dollar volume reached $281.9 million, up a modest 1.3% from 2024, but still trailing the record $389.6 million achieved in 2021.
The median price across all property types settled at $634,000, essentially flat with 2024’s $640,000 median. This marks a clear departure from the dramatic price swings of 2020-2023, signaling that the market has found equilibrium. Perhaps most importantly, months of inventory supply improved to a healthy 3.5-4.0 months range, compared to the extreme scarcity of 0.6-0.8 months during the 2021 frenzy.
The headline: Volume is recovering, prices are stabilizing, and inventory is balanced. This is a healthy, functioning market.
DETACHED HOMES: THE RECOVERY LEADER
Detached single-family homes, which represent 65-70% of the Estes market, led the 2025 recovery with 270 sales—a robust 12.5% increase from 2024’s 240 transactions. While this remains well below the peak years of 2020-2021 when annual sales exceeded 350 units, the upward trajectory signals renewed buyer confidence.
The median price for detached homes settled at $694,205, down 3.9% from 2024’s $722,250. To put this in perspective, prices peaked in 2022 at $764,250, meaning we’ve seen a 9.2% correction from that high. However, the 2025 median remains 28.6% above the 2020 baseline of $540,000, representing a still-healthy 4.3% annual appreciation rate over six years.
What’s driving the detached home recovery? Buyers have adapted to the “new normal” of 6.5-7% mortgage rates, abandoning the fantasy of returning to 3% financing. Sellers who priced competitively—within 3-5% of recent comparable sales—found buyers and closed deals in 75-90 days. Those who overpriced their properties languished on the market for 120+ days and ultimately accepted lower offers after price reductions.
Months of inventory supply for detached homes improved to approximately 3.5 months by year-end 2025, down from 4.1 months in late 2024. This range represents a balanced market where neither buyers nor sellers hold overwhelming leverage—a healthy dynamic absent since 2019.
The six-year perspective is revealing: from 2020’s $540,000 median to 2025’s $694,205 represents solid, sustainable appreciation rather than speculative mania. The market found its floor around $690,000-$720,000, and properties priced within this reality-based range moved consistently throughout 2025.
ATTACHED HOMES: THE STRUGGLE CONTINUES
While detached homes recovered nicely, condominiums and townhomes faced a more challenging 2025. The attached segment completed just 90 sales, down 15.1% from 2024’s already-soft 106 transactions. This marked the lowest annual volume in the six-year period we analyzed, raising concerns about the health of this market segment.
The median price for attached properties reached $546,500, down a modest 2.0% from 2024’s $557,500. While the price decline appears manageable, the real story lies in the transaction velocity. With 90 sales and approximately 45-50 active listings at year-end, the attached market carried roughly six months of inventory supply—pushing into buyer’s market territory.
The six-year appreciation story for attached properties remains positive on paper: from $381,500 in 2020 to $546,500 in 2025 represents a 43.3% total gain, or 6.2% annually. However, this masks a troubling recent trend. After peaking in 2024, both volume and prices declined in 2025, suggesting momentum has stalled.
Several factors explain the attached market’s weakness. First, rising HOA fees due to insurance and maintenance cost increases of 20-40% have made condo ownership less attractive. Second, the remote work revolution favors detached homes where buyers can create home offices and enjoy private outdoor space. Third, the investor and short-term rental market has largely exited due to regulatory uncertainty around vacation rental restrictions.
Perhaps most significantly, affordability has become a major barrier. The entry point for attached properties has surged from $381,500 in 2020 to $546,500 in 2025—an increase of $165,000. Combined with higher interest rates, this has pushed many first-time buyers out of the market entirely or forced them to consider locations outside Estes Park.
The message for attached property sellers is clear: aggressive pricing and differentiation are essential. Properties that offered exceptional location, pristine condition, or unique features sold within 60-75 days. Generic units in average condition with premium pricing sat for 90-120+ days and ultimately required significant price reductions to attract buyers.
WHAT 2025 TEACHES US
The transformation from 2021’s extreme seller’s market to 2025’s balanced conditions is remarkable. In 2021, inventory hovered at just 0.6-0.8 months’ supply, creating bidding wars on virtually every listing. Fast forward to 2025, and we’re looking at 3.5-4.0 months’ supply—a level that allows buyers to conduct thorough due diligence without fear of losing out.
The sale-to-list price ratio tells the story clearly: properties that once commanded 100-105% of asking price now sell for 96-98% of list. Days on market have increased from the frenzied 42–64-day range to a more normal 75-95 days. Buyers who waived inspections and appraisals to compete now conduct full due diligence as standard practice.
This isn’t a collapse—it’s a return to rationality. Both buyers and sellers can now operate with reasonable expectations rather than panic or greed driving decisions.
2026 OUTLOOK: CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM
Looking ahead to 2026, we anticipate continued modest improvement. Transaction volume should reach 425-450 sales, representing 3-9% growth as more buyers accept current interest rate levels as the new baseline. The detached market will likely continue its recovery while attached properties face ongoing challenges.
Price expectations should remain modest: detached homes settling in the $680,000-$710,000 range (flat to down 2%) and attached properties ranging $530,000-$560,000 (flat to down 3%). The theme for 2026 is stability, not appreciation.
Several factors support this outlook. Mortgage rates appear to be stabilizing in the 6.0-6.5% range rather than continuing upward. Inventory remains balanced without the excess that would trigger price collapses. The demographic wave of Baby Boomer downsizing is beginning to accelerate, which should support transaction volume.
However, headwinds persist. Economic uncertainty around employment and sticky inflation could dampen buyer confidence. Climate-related concerns and rising insurance costs in mountain communities create additional challenges for some buyers.
ADVICE FOR 2026
If you’re buying in 2026, take advantage of the first truly balanced market we’ve seen in over five years. You have time to evaluate properties thoroughly, conduct full inspections, and negotiate reasonable terms. The days of panic offers are gone. Focus your search on the $700,000-$900,000 detached range or the under-$500,000 attached segment for the best opportunities.
If you’re selling in 2026, price competitively from day one. The market will quickly punish overpriced listings with extended days on market, forcing eventual price reductions that cost you both time and money. Condition matters more than ever—updated homes sell 30% faster than comparable properties needing work. Time your listing for the March-June window when 60% of annual buyers are active. Be prepared to negotiate and offer reasonable concessions on inspection items.
THE BOTTOM LINE
The Estes Park real estate market is healthy for the first time since 2019. The pandemic-driven hysteria is over. The correction has run its course. Prices have stabilized at levels that reflect genuine demand—not speculation.
For long-term investors, the fundamentals remain strong: limited buildable land, Rocky Mountain National Park proximity, a resilient tourism economy, and remote work sustainability all support continued modest appreciation.
For buyers and sellers in 2026, success comes from realistic expectations, thorough preparation, and strategic timing. The boom is over. The crash never came. Welcome to the new normal.
Questions about your specific situation? Contact us for a personalized market analysis and pricing strategy.
Data compiled from Estes Valley Board of REALTORS MLS. Statistics cover Estes Park, Glen Haven, Drake, Pinewood Springs, Allenspark, Meeker Park, Raymond, and Riverside areas. Excludes mobile homes and timeshares.
